More higher rate taxpayers than ever expected by 2028
Leading up to this year’s Spring Budget, the media has often portrayed the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) as a powerful body that can constrain the tax-cutting options of the Chancellor ahead of the upcoming general election.
However, this is an over-simplification, as the OBR doesn’t set the fiscal rules, the Chancellor does – the OBR only calculates whether the Chancellor can meet his rules or not. Nor does the OBR set the assumptions underlying these rules.
For example, when estimating the government’s tax revenue from 2025 onwards, the OBR followed the Treasury’s assumptions that fuel duty cuts will be scrapped and fuel duty will rise with inflation, but nobody expects this to actually happen, as fuel duty rates haven’t risen since 2010.
Despite such limitations, the OBR has highlighted the impact of the lack of tax changes in the Chancellor’s plans, with new calculations showing that the status of ‘higher rate taxpayer’ is becoming increasingly common due to tax freezes.